260419 Reminder 24.04.26 NfWW No 111 A ray of hope
‘The Iran war is also a climate war,’ wrote two journalists in a recent Guardian article. ‘Beyond its terrible human costs, the war’s disruptions of oil, gas, fertilizer and other shipments is another reminder of the risks inherent in basing the world economy on fossil fuels.’
They continued, ‘The war’s jets, missiles and aircraft carriers, and the tankers, refineries and buildings they blow up, represent millions of tons of greenhouse gas emissions that further imperil a climate system that is already “very close” to a point of no return … [But] now, a little noticed ray of hope may be peeking over the horizon.’
So, where do we find that hopeful ray? You may remember that at last November’s COP30 climate summit in Brazil, Saudi Arabia led a petrostate coalition in vetoing calls to develop a global ‘roadmap’ to phase out fossil fuels; indeed, the words weren’t even used in the final text. But the 85 countries that led those calls may soon redress that.
On 28-29 April representatives of many of those countries will gather in Colombia for a conference to begin a global transition away from oil, gas and coal. Called the ‘First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels’, the gathering will not be governed by UN rules, which require consensus, but by majority rule, thus preventing a minority from sabotaging progress just as petrostates did at COP30.
Co-sponsored by Colombia and the Netherlands, the conference will bring together countries that endorsed the COP30 roadmap proposal, as well as high-profile leaders of sub-national governments, including the California governor, Gavin Newsom, a likely 2028 US presidential candidate.
Joining them will be climate activists, leaders of Indigenous peoples, trade unionists and other civil society voices, sharing ideas and experiences on how to make the goal of phasing out fossil fuels a practical reality.
The power of this coalition lies in economic scale. Together the 85 COP30 countries that backed the roadmap, which include Brazil, France, Germany, Mexico, Spain and UK, have a combined GNP of $33.3 trillion – larger than the US ($30.6tn) and far above China ($19.4tn).
The conference goal is to agree on ‘actionable solutions’ that follow-up meetings can refine for implementation worldwide. One major focus will be how to phase out the $7tn a year governments spend subsidizing fossil fuels, and do so without harming workers, communities and local tax bases that depend on them.
If the conference produces a credible transition plan, it will send shockwaves through financial markets worldwide, sending a signal to discerning fund managers that the era of oil, gas, and coal is ending. Private investors and government planners everywhere will then be forced to question whether new fossil fuel investments risk becoming white elephants.
At least 4 in every 5 of the world’s people want their governments to take stronger climate action. This Just Transition conference could deliver just that.
Joe Human sustainablekeswick@gmail.com
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