A major climatic shift is underway in the Pacific Ocean – and we should all be paying attention. After a prolonged period of neutral conditions, El Niño is emerging once again, with forecasters warning that this event could be one of the most powerful on record.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly, pointing to the onset of El Niño conditions.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has since confirmed the event has begun with models indicating a strengthening throughout the year.
In fact, predictions from international climate centres around the world are strikingly congruent: there is an 88% chance of at least a strong event, and a 63% chance of a very strong or potentially historic one by autumn or early winter 2026–27.
This means we could be in for a ‘super El Niño’, possibly the strongest ever recorded. And that in turn could make next year the hottest on record.
So, what is it? El Niño is a natural climate cycle driven by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. When sea-surface temperatures there exceed 0.5°C above average for several consecutive months, and when the massive east-to-west atmospheric flow of the trade winds stalls, NOAA declares an El Niño event.
Typically lasting 9–12 months and occurring every two to seven years, El Niño reshapes rainfall and temperature patterns across the globe, with cascading effects on ecosystems, food production, and human health.
But while the impacts are global their effects differ markedly between regions. Wetter conditions are expected across southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and parts of central Asia.
Meanwhile, Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia typically experience drought.
For this summer, WMO forecasts above-normal land surface temperatures almost everywhere, with particularly pronounced heating over southern North America, Central America, Europe, and North Africa.
Overall, the impact of El Niño cannot now be appreciated outside the context of a warming planet. While the WMO notes there is no firm evidence that climate change directly increases the frequency of El Niño events, it unambiguously amplifies their impacts.
Warmer oceans and atmosphere mean that more energy and moisture are available for extreme weather – intensifying the floods, heatwaves (with wildfires), and droughts which El Niño already brings.
While we in the richer countries of the world may weather El Niño’s impacts, it will be the world’s poor who will bear the brunt. For globally, there is a heightened risk of a shock to global food systems, and, with that, more hunger, more conflict and more migration.
And this comes at a time when humanitarian budgets in the rich world have been slashed drastically. This includes the near-total collapse of USAID.
El Niño years cry out for more aid not less.
Joe Human
sustainablekeswick@gmail.com
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