As I write this, a week before publication, the temperature here in Keswick is expected to reach 29oC. And as the centre of heat shifts westwards, in Bristol it will be 33oC – hot, but short of last month’s record: 37.7oC measured at Lingwood, Norfolk.
This year we, and our close European neighbours, have already had three heatwaves: in May, June and July. For Western Europe as a whole, the end of May heatwave was record-breaking, while last month’s made it the hottest June on record – some 3oC above average.
Across Southern Europe, where temperatures in some places have been over 40oC this week, accumulating heat coupled with lack of rain and raging winds – a combination now termed ‘fire weather’ – have fuelled widespread wildfires, causing thousands to flee their homes and, so far, 12 fatalities.
All this has prompted some in the UK media, long on memory, but short on understanding, to play down what we are now experiencing in comparison to the 1976 June-July heatwave, which I too remember.
Helpfully, the Met Office, which has been marking the 50th anniversary of that torrid summer, has noted that temperatures once considered extreme in 1976 have since been exceeded multiple times, with 36°C now recorded on several occasions, including six days in the past decade.
So, while 1976 still holds the record for the hottest UK summer average and driest/sunniest overall, for single-day peaks 2026 has already left it well behind. And just to remind ourselves: we are still only halfway through the meteorological summer (of June, July and August).
What is common to the two years is the cause, namely recurring high-pressure, lasting several weeks, trapping hot air over the UK and parts of Western Europe.
However, the area of the continent covered this year has been very much more extensive than in 1976, with the lethal consequences now seen in Southern Europe. And, significantly, this year’s heatwaves have been more humid, making them feel much worse.
Scientists involved in World Weather Attribution (WWA) modelling, to whom I always turn concerning extreme weather, have pointed out that last month’s temperatures would have been virtually impossible in 1976, when some of the previous European records were set.
Given that all this is driven by climate change caused largely by the burning of fossil fuels, it is useful to look at the concentrations of atmospheric CO2 in key years. The pre-industrial level was around 280 parts per million (ppm), as it had been for the past 12,000 years since the end of the last ice age.
When I was born in 1940 it was 310ppm. In 1976 … 332ppm. Now … 432ppm – a level last recorded 14m years ago, when temperatures were several degrees warmer than pre-industrial levels and sea levels 20 – 40m higher.
So, given this, why would anyone think that drilling for more oil and gas anywhere is a really good idea?
Joe Human
Sustainable Keswick
Recent Comments